Tension in the foreign exchange market will increase by the end of the year - expert
2017 August 02 ( Wednesday ) 16:49:58
Baku / 03.08.17 / Turan: The well-known expert-economist Gubad Ibadoglu in his interview to the Turan program "Çətin sual" (Difficult issue) shared his assessments of the country's economy and the situation on the financial market.
Despite the authorities' approval of the development, in fact, the economy has been declining for several years. The main indicator of this is a decrease in the national income per capita.
This is a significant reduction in the expenditure, as well as the revenue part of the state budget. For the second year in Azerbaijan double-digit inflation persists, which means an increase in consumer spending.
Another trend is the decline in GDP. The expected positive changes do not occur for the second year. In the first half of the year the economy fell by another 1.3%. All these tendencies affect the social situation.
So, jobs are being closed, unemployment is growing. Operations on buying and selling has almost stopped. It affected not only real estate, but even furniture and cars.
The basic consumer expenditures of the population fall on food products, which changes the structure of the family budget. For 6 months of this year compared to the same period last year, the volume of deposits decreased by 9.5%.
The business activity is also deteriorating, since the fundamental capital investments in the economy have been declining for two years already.
As for the impact of rising gasoline prices and the rise in the cost of other goods, it is still difficult to calculate all the consequences. "Only 15 days have passed since the day of gasoline price hike. The rise in price of gasoline also affects those areas where transportation is used, "the expert said.
In addition, prices for agricultural products are not falling at all, but, on the contrary, they are growing. Even before the increase in the tariff for gasoline, the inflation rate was 13.9%.
As for the currency market, there is stability, but it can not be called sustainable. One of the factors creating stability is the high cost of oil.
A serious decline also occurs in exports. In foreign trade turnover, a surplus of $1.8 billion was formed. This made it possible to successfully resolve the issues of current accounts of the balance of payments. No one denies the revival in the tourism sector. These revenues, too, to some extent serve to stabilize the domestic market.
However, in general, this is unstable and not for a long time. So, there are certain positive changes in the foreign exchange market, but the debt of the state, companies, banks is growing. Therefore, at the end of the year, the currency market again expects tensions, said Ibaloglu.
When asked what measures should be taken to improve the situation, the expert said that a number of decisions were taken, as well as the "Strategic Roadmap", new decrees were signed. "I think that in these documents there is a sufficient number of rational ideas. There are simply problems in their implementation. "
For example, Financial Council instructed to prepare within six months fiscal rules for regulating the upper level of transfers to the state budget from the State Oil Fund. The president must sign it for application. However, 6 months have already passed, but the document is not ready yet.
A portal should be created in connection with permissions, but it is not. Ibad Gubadoglu wants to note that one of the important issues for today is the implementation of decrees and decisions by responsible bodies. "This requires the rule of law, the independence of the judiciary and the legal system. Thus, it will be possible to practically ensure changes in the economy, "he concluded. -03B-