Sanctions will not hurt Turkey very much, however ...

In the decision of US President Donald Trump on the application of sanctions against Turkey, the most noteworthy point is a 50% increase in export duties on Turkish steel imported into the US (the article by the ovbserver of "Kommersant" , Sergei Strokan, is called "Turkish Steel Will Be Tested for Strength" , "Kommersant", No. 189 of October 16, 2019, p. 6).

The US House of Representatives Foreign Relations Committee also adopted a draft resolution providing for the imposition of sanctions against Turkey. One of the authors of a more political project, a member of the Democratic Party, the chairman of this Committee, Eliot Engel, said: "Our proposed sanctions will hold Erdogan responsible for this terrible defeat. For military operations, leading to the deaths of civilians and the revival of ISIS, created threats to global security. "

That is, with this bill, Congress points to a more unfavorable aspect of the case for Turkey: the reason for the revival of ISIS is called the "Source of Peace". If Washington really thinks so, but even if it doesn"t think so, but consciously hints at it, Turkey may face a much worse evil than sanctions. But first, a little about the inefficiency of economic sanctions.

The US application of sanctions against Turkey has more than half a century of history. The embargo, which began in the mid-1960s, was renewed again in the early 1970s, when Turkey did not abandon poppy cultivation. The embargoes, introduced after two Peace Movements, organized to save the Turks in Cyprus in July-August 1974, speaking even today in an unforgettable language, made Turkey "need 70 cents."

The sanctions that took place during the reign of the government of a social activist politician Bulent Ecevit, who maintains good relations with the USSR, greatly bled the already weak and mostly state-capitalist economy of Turkey. As a result of this, a military coup took place on September 12, 1980, and capitalist reforms were carried out through Deputy Prime Minister Turgut Ozal, who was in very good relations with the United States.

Despite the many qualities worthy of criticism, it can be said that it was thanks to Ozal that Turkey got acquainted closely with such concepts of the capitalist system in the proper sense of the word as "production in the private sector, free exchange rate, exchange, etc.", which became integral part of everyday life. In other words, starting from the smallest artisan to the largest investor, everyone began to learn to stand on their own feet. During the 1990s and early 2000s, governments led to endless crises, and everyone - from a small merchant to large capitalists - himself sought and found ways out of them.

Now it is already well known that thanks to horizontal cooperation with foreign countries, established by the economic system, which has significantly strengthened in the country under the regime of the ruling Justice and Development Party, the implementation of economic sanctions is difficult and ineffective (due to the bilateral nature). Any embargo will inspire Turkish citizens who know the secrets of a free economy to create and apply next innovations in the country. This is well understood in the West.

Therefore, the allusions to ISIS in the draft Committee on Foreign Affairs of the Congress (which is likely to be adopted by him) certainly did not go unnoticed by Ankara. For Washington"s persistence in this matter does not bode well for Turkey. Since, unlike Turkey, Washington views ISIS as a terrorist organization, and PYD / YPG as a "leading fight against ISIS" is non-terrorist and supports it. And although Congress, overly bulging and blaming Turkey for the operation "Source of Peace", will try to assign the solution to the ISIS problem, the development of events can go in a completely different direction.

What about Russia?

Most experts are confident that the more conflicts between Turkey and the United States, the more benefits Russia will receive.

Meanwhile, Turkey feels calm precisely in this regard: no matter how much pressure builds up, at some point it will definitely stop. Because neither the United States nor NATO will want to see the relations of their oldest ally with Russia continue to develop after a certain point, and a compromise will be found.

Turkey, led by Erdogan, has repeatedly experienced this truth and was convinced that it leads to success.